Market Bias
Neutral / Rotation
Suggested Account Risk
0.5–1.0% Â
 Actionable Now
3
Extended/ Starter Only
4
 FOMO Indicator (%)
27
Market Review
Today was dominated by two driving forces. On the positive side was news last evening that the Trump administration would allow NVDA and AMD to export more chips to China. Tech heavyweights have a big impact on indexes and resulted in the QQQ closing up 0.09%, while the SPY fell 0.4% and Small Caps (IWM) were hammered nearly 2%. The tremendous weakness in small caps and general weakness outside of tech was driven by the CPI inflation report, which to me did not look particularly surprising—but market responses showed concern about tariff-driven inflation.
Was it a one-day overreaction possibly driven by bond market positioning? Hard to say, but it will be interesting to see if the trend continues into tomorrow.
The broad weakness resulted in our FOMO indicator dropping to 23%. It would take much more weakness to get it down to FEAR levels, which are typically associated with great short-term buying opportunities.
Today—and in fact, the past week or so—has been a great example of how critical it is to be in leading stocks. Leading names have continued to push higher despite general weakness. It doesn’t mean we are immune to drops, but leadership means we should see more upside than the market as well as less downside. Thus far, our positions have been delivering clear leadership action.Â
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Stock Review
AMD continues to show fantastic action and, interestingly, outperformed NVDA—even though NVDA gets all the headlines. This de-risk sell lowers the adjusted cost to $129.53, leaving a 22.4% gain in one of AI’s leaders. Enjoy the upside.
Stock Highlights
AMD – Leadership Semi; Wait for Pullback
Why Now: AMD has shown relative strength versus NVDA in recent sessions despite headline dominance by NVDA; institutions continue to accumulate on weakness in the AI buildout theme.
Technical Trigger: Prefer pullback entry into the 21‑day zone (192‑196); avoid chasing extensions.
Risk Frame:Â Entry 194 mid; Stop 184 = $10 R/share; 2R Trim 214.
Theme:Â AI Compute / Data Center Acceleration.
Comment:Â Starter size acceptable if market breadth stabilizes; add on strong-volume support bounce.
RBRK – Secure Data + Private AI Optionality
Why Now: Integration path following Predibase acquisition positions Rubrik as a bridge between enterprise backup/data governance and controlled GenAI model deployment on proprietary data.
Technical Trigger: Breakout above 3-week tight range ~48.50 with volume confirmation.
Risk Frame: Entry 48.75 mid; Stop 45.00 = $3.75 R/share; 2R Trim ~56.25.
Theme: AI & Cybersecurity Convergence.
Comment: Attractive asymmetry if breakout holds; consider scaling to full size across 2 tranches.
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The Risk2Zero Strategy
Our capital defence protocol: take ~1/3 off at +2R, then manage remaining risk per your objective. Keeps losses small; turns fast winners into stress-reduced holds.
- Enter within the defined Entry Zone.
- Initial Stop defines 1R risk per share.
- At +2R from entry, trim ~1/3 of position.
- Move stop on remaining shares toward breakeven (entry or avg-cost).
- Choose path: Ride Trend / Swing Exit / Hybrid Partial.