Caruso Weekend Report: July 13, 2025

Weekend Report 

Markets did very little this week and simply consolidated after two weeks of powerful gains. This was expected, and we noted its likelihood in last week’s update thanks to our FOMO indicator (updated view below). It’s not so much about predicting week to week (which is impossible) but about knowing when to be aggressive or patient. Though markets closed the week lower, they had moved higher during the week, making nearly all on-strength buys outside of crypto a loss by week’s end. 

Beyond the summer chop and constructive technical action, what I believe is a very positive emerging reaction to tariff news is taking shape. Despite numerous tariff announcements—some with perhaps higher-than-expected amounts—markets pulled back very little, despite also being extended. Barely pulling back from extended levels in response to what could easily be perceived as negative news is very bullish action. 

Two leading groups this week were crypto (Bitcoin & Ethereum) and interest-rate-sensitive stocks such as UPST (mentioned last week), SOFI, and home builders. This indicates to me that the market is beginning to price in rate cuts by the Fed this fall, and almost certainly more cuts next year once the new Fed Chair takes over. I detailed my broader market views on rates, the AI bull market, and the role of stocks like UPST as a guest on Friday’s episode of Making Money with Charles Payne on Fox Business News. You can watch the clip here:  https://youtu.be/yQOAJz1jVtg 

Amidst the market pause, leading stocks are either still pushing higher or calmly consolidating, leaving us focused on the optimal timing of new buys.