Snapshot

After being cooped up at home throughout the covid pandemic, the desire to travel has never been stronger. People are itching to get out and explore the world once again.

For Airbnb, while the pandemic saw bookings for nights and experiences plunge over 70% year-over-year, the company has been able to pull off a dramatic recovery as it rapidly responded to the crisis with significant restructuring and strategic actions. From layoffs and hiring freezes to flexible booking policies and enhanced cleaning protocols, Airbnb wasted little time in taking necessary steps to ensure it had the best chance of emerging as a stronger company and regaining the confidence of travelers around the world.

In addition, when the pandemic hit, the company chose to focus on its most unique feature. It returned to its roots and the everyday people who host their homes and offer experiences, scaling back investments that did not directly support its core business of hosting. This decision has proved critical with people increasingly seeking local stays as the pandemic persisted, providing and distinct advantage that was ultimately a core driver in the company’s recovery.

Today, Airbnb continues as one of the largest travel companies in the world, with over six million listings in over 220 countries. Despite facing challenges from the pandemic, which had catastrophic impacts on competitors within the travel sector, Airbnb has continued to innovate and grow, expanding into new markets and introducing new products and services to continue its growth trajectory.

Background

Born out of a need to make rent payments in San Francisco, Airbnb was founded in 2008 by Brian Chesky, Joe Gebbia, and Nathan Blecharczyk. The trio rented out air mattresses on their apartment floor during a conference and saw an opportunity for a new type of accommodation service. Beginning with the mattresses and couches in living rooms, it quickly grew in popularity as hosts began offering their homes, apartments, and spare rooms.

In 2009, the company raised $600,000 in seed funding, which helped them expand beyond San Francisco. And by 2011, Airbnb had listings in over 8,000 cities worldwide and had raised more than $100 million in funding. The company continued to expand, both geographically, by adding new offices and listing around the world, and by adding new features. The company’s technology has also evolved, with its first mobile app released ten years ago.

As the third wave of the covid pandemic began to ramp up, Airbnb went public in December 2020, raising $3.5 billion in one of the biggest IPOs of the year, valuing the company at $47 billion at the time.

As it has grown in size and popularity, Airbnb has faced increasing regulatory challenges from local governments and hotel associations ranging from concerns about driving up house prices to the need to ban parties in homes rented on the platform. In response, the company has made concerted efforts to work with some local governments and comply with regulations. In other cases such as with China, Russia, and Belarus, it has ceased operations.

Leadership

Airbnb is currently led by co-founder Brian Chesky as the company’s chief executive officer. Chesky has been instrumental in driving Airbnb’s growth and expansion over the past decade and has guided it to become a community of over four million hosts who have welcomed more than one billion guests. He has even been recognized for his entrepreneurial achievements, including being named one of Time magazine’s 100 most influential people in the world.

Fellow co-founder Nathan Blecharczyk also continues to serve the company as its chief strategy officer. Blecharczyk has led the creation of Airbnb’s engineering, data science, payments, and performance marketing teams. His holistic understanding of the business, public policy, product, data, and Airbnb’s long-term stakeholder interests have seen him oversee several industry-first solutions including the Airbnb City Portal, which addresses the needs of cities relating to short-term rentals, along with the company’s reservation screening technology which is critical in identifying high-risk reservations.

Customer

In 15 years, the company has come a long way from mattresses in living rooms to a diverse offering that caters to the needs of various types of travelers including solos, couples, families, and business professionals across the spectrum from budget-conscious backpackers to luxury-seeking jet-setters. Beyond the traditional home-sharing service that allows hosts to rent out their entire home or just a spare room, unique stays now include everything from treehouses, yurts, and castles to provide travelers with a truly one-of-a-kind experience.

While at its core, it remains a platform that connects hosts and guests with authentic accommodations around the world, over the years it has launched several new verticals. Airbnb Experiences has made it possible for travelers to book activities and tours with locals, providing them with an opportunity to explore their destination in a unique and authentic way. The offering has a wide range of experiences available including cooking classes, photography tours, and outdoor adventures.

The addition of Airbnb Plus provided a new tier of accommodations, which offers a collection of high-quality, verified homes that have been inspected and approved by Airbnb. These homes deliver additional amenities and services to guests, such as high-quality linens and personal concierge services.

While in 2018, the company launched Airbnb for Work, which caters specifically to business travelers. This service provides business-friendly accommodations and travel management tools, making it easier for companies to manage their travel expenses and ensure their employees have a comfortable and productive travel experience.

Thematic

Airbnb’s range of products and services has helped it become a popular alternative to traditional hotels. By providing travelers with unique and authentic experiences, the company has established itself as a leader in the travel industry. Furthermore, it has achieved this with the asset-light flexibility of a software company, coupled with a real-world footprint and scale exceeding the largest international hotel chains. Airbnb has also had the benefit of not incurring enormous labor costs, property maintenance, and heavy capital expenditures required by the traditional incumbents it has managed to disrupt. Despite delivering over 50% more revenue per year, Airbnb’s almost 7000-strong workforce is dwarfed by Marriott International’s more than 130,000 employees.

Airbnb has said it is focusing on three strategic priorities:
– Make hosting mainstream – by continuing to raise awareness around hosting, making it easier to get started, and providing better tools for hosts.
– Perfect the core service – based on feedback from guests and hosts, Airbnb will continue making a large number of upgrades to the service looking ahead, improving community support, making it easier to find the right home, and delivering greater value
– Expand beyond the core – by building a foundation for future products and services that will provide incremental growth for years to come

Efforts to deliver on these priorities are already well underway. In November, Airbnb Setup was introduced to make it easy for people to Airbnb their homes. Prospective hosts can now connect with existing Superhosts for free one-to-one guidance all the way through their first reservation. In addition, new hosts also can choose to have an experienced guest for their first booking and receive specialized support from Airbnb. Since the launch of the company’s “Airbnb It” campaign, the number of visitors to its host landing page has doubled. While the number of new active Hosts recruited with the help of Superhosts increased by more than 20% compared to pre-launch.

Also in 2022, Airbnb Categories were introduced, creating a new way of making millions of unique homes discoverable to guests who would have never known existed otherwise. The service is designed to help guests looking for a unique space to discover one-of-a-kind homes via categories organized into curated collections, with over 50 categories of homes chosen for their style, location, or nearby activities. And with more people taking longer trips than ever before, Airbnb also created Split Stays, an innovative new feature that splits a trip between two different homes. As a result, guests can find an average of 40% more listings when searching for longer stays.

While key in rebuilding the confidence of travelers around the world, AirCover is now providing comprehensive free protection for all guests and hosts across a range of issues. Guarantees now ensure that guests are covered in the event a host needs to cancel a booking, if a guest can’t check into their home, or they find their listing is not as advertised. While for hosts, a comprehensive verification system checks details such as name, address, government ID, and more to confirm the identity of guests. Airbnb will also reimburse for damage caused by guests to their homes and belongings or if a guest gets hurt or their belongings are damaged or stolen. In addition, a 24-hour Safety Line provides priority access to specially-trained safety agents in multiple languages.

Unlike many industry disruptors, Airbnb has also managed to deliver its most profitable performances to date, despite slashing its overall marketing investment as a percentage of revenue and shifting its marketing strategy to be more brand-driven and PR-led, and less dependent on search engine and performance marketing. Airbnb now looks at the role of marketing as one of “education” and not “to buy customers”. With the majority of Airbnb bookings coming from past guests, the strong retention has been a powerful driver of growth. Impressively, despite the shift, the company has still been able to introduce Airbnb to millions of new users since the covid pandemic and when combined with a leaner organizational structure, has positioned it well to navigate the challenges of the current macroeconomic climate.

Financials

Airbnb has well and truly emerged from the covid pandemic, delivering another record year in 2022 after revenue of $8.4 billion grew 40% year-over-year, as guest demand remained strong, and all regions saw significant growth with guests once again crossing borders and returning to new cities. The company also benefitted from strong supply growth, ending the year with 6.6 million global active listings, which is over 900,000 more than at the beginning of the year, excluding China. This growth was driven by the global network, where demand drives supply, as well as product innovations that continued to attract new hosts.

The company has also posted its highest-ever adjusted EBITDA ever at almost $3 billion, for more than a 50% year-on-year increase, which the company says demonstrates the continued strength of the business and discipline in managing the cost structure. Net income was $1.9 billion, also making 2022 Airbnb’s first profitable full year.

Looking ahead, management is forecasting to kick off FY23 with total revenue between $1.75 billion to $1.82 billion for the quarter, representing year-over-year growth of between 16% and 21%, after which it anticipates that seasonality in 2023 will be similar to 2022. Consensus estimates have full-year revenue expected at $9.6 billion, delivering double-digit year-over-year growth of 14%. Analysts are also expecting earnings per share to continue its upwards trajectory, increasing 22% year-over-year to $3.42, up from $2.79 in 2022.

Risks/Competition

The market for home-sharing and travel is highly competitive, with many major players vying for market share. Airbnb’s major competitors include other home-sharing platforms like Vrbo and HomeAway, as well as traditional hotel companies like Marriott and Hilton. Additionally, online travel agencies like Booking.com and Expedia also compete with Airbnb for customers. While new entrants have emerged in the home-sharing market, such as Sonder and Lyric, which offer a more standardized and hotel-like experience. These players compete on factors including everything from pricing, customer experience, brand reputation, and the range and quality of offerings.

The covid pandemic had a significant impact on the industry and has created new market conditions. There is now a greater emphasis on health and safety measures with travelers being more concerned than ever about staying in clean and safe accommodations.

However, despite past noise regarding the transparency of Airbnb’s fees, an issue the company has addressed, Airbnb has a large and loyal customer base and global brand recognition. And when coupled with a focus on providing unique and authentic accommodations and experiences, give it a competitive advantage in the market.

Conclusion

From humble beginnings to a global industry leader, there is no denying Airbnb epitomizes an industry disruptor. Having recovered from the covid pandemic as a more efficient organization and continuing to benefit from more focused marketing and a new suite of innovations to keep new and current guests returning, it appears well-placed to build on its record performances.

Symbol Info

Weekly Chart

Fundamental Data

Snapshot

Cancer is one of the leading causes of death worldwide, and early detection is crucial for successful treatment. However, traditional screening methods are often invasive, uncomfortable, and expensive.

Exact Sciences Corporation is a leading, global, advanced cancer diagnostics company, developing some of the most impactful products in cancer screening as it works to bring new, innovative cancer tests to patients throughout the world. The company specializes in the development of non-invasive tests and are aiming to make earlier cancer detection a routine part of medical care. From screening to treatment guidance, their services help provide critical information needed to make more informed cancer care decisions.

Their flagship product, Cologuard, is a non-invasive stool DNA test for colorectal cancer that can detect the presence of cancerous or precancerous cells with a high degree of accuracy, making it a more accessible and effective option for patients. It also provides a range of precision oncology tests for breast and colon cancers, along with tumor profiling for patients, and covid-19 testing services.

With an expanding global network of ordering healthcare providers, Exact has provided cancer tests to more than 12 million people. Building on a solid history of consistent top-line revenue growth, the company is currently focused on accelerating its path to profitability through key prioritization efforts. In particular, it is concentrating on further expanding its market reach by partnering with healthcare providers and insurance companies to increase awareness and access to its products.

Additionally, the company is exploring new geographic markets, as it also continues to undertake critical research and development initiatives within colorectal cancer screening, multi-cancer early detection, and molecular residual disease.

Background

Founded by Stanley Lapidus and Anthony Shuber in Massachusetts in 1995, Exact Sciences struggled in its early years including following an initial offering on the NASDAQ in 2001. However, a significant turnaround in the company’s fortunes began with the announcement of a mutual collaboration and licensing agreement with the Mayo Clinic in 2009. In the same year, the company appointed its current CEO and chairman, Kevin Conroy.

By 2014, Exact received premarket approval from the FDA for the use and marketing of Cologuard, a breakthrough that heralded the beginning of a period of rapid growth and the start of its foray into the acquisitions market. In the years following, Exact acquired several companies including Sampleminded, Armune Bioscience, Biomatrica, Paradigm Diagnostics, and Viomics, adding a range of technical capabilities.

However, it was its $2.8 billion purchase of Genomic Health, a genetic cancer detection company based in California, which expanded Exact’s product portfolio markets outside the U.S. The deal led to the opening of Exact Sciences offices in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan, and the foundation of Exact Sciences International.

In 2020, Exact responded to the covid pandemic by refocusing a portion of its diagnostic capacity to testing for the disease, becoming one of the first companies in the U.S. to receive FDA approval to provide home testing kits.

While most recently in early 2021, Exact announced its acquisition of Ashion Analytics and plans to collaborate in research with TGen, the City Of Hope’s Genomics Institute, building on its purchase of an exclusive-use license of TGen’s proprietary liquid biopsy-based test technology, Tardis.

Leadership

Kevin Conroy became chief executive officer of Exact in 2009 and chairman in 2014, transforming the organization into one of the world’s premier cancer diagnostics companies with more than 6,500 employees. Conroy has led Exact through the entire journey of development, clinical trial, regulatory approval, and commercialization of Cologuard. This culminated with the test becoming the first medical device or diagnostic to receive simultaneous FDA approval and national Medicare coverage. Before joining the company, Conroy served as CEO and president of Third Wave Technologies, held leadership positions at GE Healthcare, and practiced intellectual property law in private practice. He also currently serves as a director of Adaptive Biotechnology Corporation and is on the board of the American Clinical Laboratory Association and Personalized Medicine Coalition.

Conroy is joined by chief science officer and former president of Minimal Residual Disease and Therapy Selection, Jorge Garces, who brings decades of experience in diagnostics including a focus on the development, clinical trials, and commercialization of liquid biopsy tests in the field of oncology. Prior to joining Exact, Garces served in several president, CEO, and CSO roles with Epigenomics AG, AltheaDx Inc, and Enigma Diagnostics, along with many other leadership positions at Hologic Inc., Third Wave Technologies, Genzyme Genetics, and Athena Diagnostics.

Customer

Exact’s flagship screening product, the Cologuard test, is a patient-friendly, non-invasive, stool-based DNA (sDNA) screening test that utilizes a multi-target approach to detect eleven DNA and hemoglobin biomarkers that are associated with colorectal cancer and pre-cancer.

Exact also provide more than 5,000 predefined genetic tests for nearly all clinically relevant genes, additional custom panels, and comprehensive germline, whole exome, and whole genome sequencing tests. In particular, the company’s hereditary cancer test, Riskguard, helps people understand their inherited risk of cancer, providing them with critical information to make better treatment decisions.

Precision oncology tests marketed under the Oncotype DX labeling deliver actionable insights to inform prognosis and cancer treatment after a diagnosis. Oncotype DX tests serve a range of purposes including identifying breast cancer patients who are most or least likely to benefit from chemotherapy, helping guide treatment decision-making for women with ductal carcinoma in situ, and enabling an individualized approach to treatment planning for patients with stage II and stage III colon cancer. While the OncoExTra test applies comprehensive tumor profiling and sequencing, to aid in therapy selection for patients with advanced, metastatic, refractory, relapsed, or recurrent cancer.

These tests ultimately enable patients to take a more active role in their cancer care and make it easy for providers to order tests, interpret results, and personalize medicine by applying real-world evidence and guideline recommendations.

In late March 2020, Exact also began providing COVID-19 testing. Partnering with various customers to administer testing, specimens are sent to Exact’s laboratory in Wisconsin, where they run the assay and provide test results to ordering providers. However, as the public health impacts of COVID-19 evolve, Exact has said it intends to periodically reassess offering covid testing as the pandemic abates, demand declines over time, and government funding for testing services is reduced.

Thematic

It is widely accepted that colorectal cancer is among the most preventable, yet least prevented cancers. It can take up to 10 to 15 years to progress from a pre-cancerous lesion to metastatic cancer and death. While patients who are diagnosed early in the progression of the disease are more likely to have a complete recovery and to be treated less expensively. Furthermore, as the second leading cause of cancer deaths in the U.S. and the leading cause among non-smokers, each year there are approximately 153,000 new cases of colorectal cancer and approximately 53,000 deaths across the country.

In 2014, the Cologuard test became the first and only FDA-approved sDNA test, while in 2019, the FDA expanded its indication to include average-risk individuals ages 45-49, making it indicated for adults 45 years of age and older. Furthermore, the American Cancer Society has specifically included the Cologuard test as a recommended colorectal cancer screening test for this population. To date, more than 55% of Americans within this group are not up-to-date with screening. As a result, with nearly 110 million Americans at a three-year screening interval and an average revenue per test of approximately $500, this represents a potential $18 billion market for Cologuard tests.

Exact’s core products, Cologuard and Oncotype DX are already generating significant revenue, however, the company has several incremental improvements to these products in its pipeline. Such as Cologuard 2.0, which boasts increased specificity and advanced adenoma sensitivity, aiming to reduce false positive rates. To that end, Exact has completed enrollment of a multi-center study, which is expected to support FDA approval of the enhanced test. While the recent launch of the OncoExTra therapy selection test brings with it next-generation sequencing and comprehensive tumor profiling to provide doctors and their patients with a complete molecular picture of a patient’s cancer to aid in therapy selection.

Exact is also investing in the development of minimal residual disease (MRD) testing, with studies underway for both colon and breast cancers. The company plans to offer both tumor-informed and tumor-naive MRD tests, which can help detect small amounts of tumor DNA that may remain in patients’ blood following initial cancer treatment. By monitoring MRD levels over time, doctors can identify when a patient’s cancer cells are starting to grow again and intervene with additional treatments before the cancer has a chance to progress.

Finally, looking further ahead, the company is developing a multi-cancer early detection test aimed at helping to detect many different types of cancer from a single blood draw. For which initial data was presented data at the European Society for Medical Oncology Congress in September 2022.

Financials

With the exception of a modest tempering throughout the covid pandemic, Exact has been on an impressive trajectory of revenue expansion for the last decade, largely achieving high double-digit and even triple-digit year-over-year growth each year. The company ended 2022 strongly with a record quarter that also resulted in a record full-year revenue that exceeded $2 billion for the first time. Total revenue of $2.1 million, made up of Screening revenue of $1.43 billion and Precision Oncology revenue of $601 million, represented a year-on-year increase of 18%.

Of particular note in its latest results, Exact said it has shifted its focus towards achieving positive adjusted EBITDA as a way to signal a path to eliminate cash burn in 2023. The company’s adjusted EBITDA profit in the fourth quarter at $5 million, was an improvement of $120 million. Furthermore, industry-leading gross margins are powering future positive results and a clear path to free cash flow.

Looking ahead, the company anticipates revenue of $2.27 to $2.32 billion during 2023. This assumes Screening revenue of $1.66 to $1.69 billion and Precision Oncology revenue of $600 to $620 million, along with COVID-19 testing revenue of $5 million. The target represents year-over-year growth of around 10%, also matching consensus expectations. Analysts are also expecting full-year earnings per share to record a loss of $2.22 for 2023, improving over 33% from a $3.35 loss in 2022.

Risks/Competition

With the U.S. market for colorectal cancer screening exceeding more than 110 million eligible individuals, it has attracted numerous competitors.

Exact’s Cologuard test faces competition from procedure-based detection technologies such as colonoscopy, flexible sigmoidoscopy, and “virtual” colonoscopy, as well as other common screening tests, such as the fecal occult blood test and the fecal immunochemical test. Newer screening technologies also include liquid biopsy tests.

Exact is also aware of at least three companies, Mainz Biomed, Prescient Metabiomics, and Geneoscopy, that are seeking to develop or have developed stool-based colorectal cancer tests in the U.S.

However, given all other colorectal cancer detection methods currently in use are constrained by some combination of poor sensitivity, poor adherence, or high cost, the Cologuard test, being the first and only sDNA-based non-invasive test on the market today, compares favorably to the alternatives.

Conclusion

After achieving solid traction with its initial core products, Exact appears to be at an inflection point for not only improving profitability, but backing it up with a growing pipeline of life-changing diagnostics.

Symbol Info

Weekly Chart

Fundamental Data

Snapshot

As the world shifts towards electric vehicles and autonomous driving, demand for advanced safety features and connectivity solutions within the automotive industry has surged.

Aptiv is a global technology company that specializes in developing advanced electrical architecture and integrated software solutions primarily serving the automotive sector.

Delivering end-to-end mobility solutions, that enable major manufacturers to transition to more electrified, software-defined vehicles, the company designs and manufactures vehicle components and provides electronic and active safety technology solutions to the global automotive markets. These solutions create both the software and hardware foundations for vehicle features and functionality, often providing the ‘brain’ and the ‘nervous system’ of increasingly complex vehicles, and enabling a new paradigm of integration for vehicles into their operating environments.

Aptiv’s products enable safer, greener, and more connected vehicles, and their technology is used by many of the world’s leading automotive manufacturers. With its primary markets including Europe, North America, and Asia, Aptiv now has a presence in more than 45 countries.

Heavily focused on growing and improving the profitability of its businesses, Aptiv is strategically focusing its portfolio on high-technology, high-growth spaces to create advanced solutions that provide greater functionality and enhance the overall driving experience, while meeting the evolving needs of the automotive industry.

In addition to key partnerships with industry leaders to develop new technologies and solutions, they are also expanding their geographic footprint by establishing a strong presence in emerging markets such as China, India, and Brazil.

Background

Aptiv was originally established as General Motors’ Automotive Components Group in 1994, although along with several other divisions, GM renamed the group to Delphi Automotive Systems in 1995, as it specialized in the development of automotive electronics and electrical systems. The company focused on developing cutting-edge technologies such as advanced safety systems, airbags, and anti-lock brakes, as well as innovations in fuel injection and emissions control.

In 2017, Delphi spun off its powertrain division and renamed itself Aptiv. The newly independent company continued to focus on developing advanced auto systems and software solutions with a new wave of next-gen technologies such as collision avoidance and lane departure warning systems. As well as connectivity solutions that allow drivers to stay connected to the internet and other devices while on the road.

Over the years, Aptiv has acquired several related technology companies as part of its growth strategy, including KUM, HellermannTyton, and Movimento, among many more. These acquisitions have helped Aptiv to expand its product range, global reach, and market share in the automotive, aerospace, defense, and telecommunications markets. As the automotive industry shifts towards electric vehicles and self-driving cars, there is increasing importance on advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving technologies.

Leadership

Chairman and chief executive officer, Kevin Clark, has been with Aptiv since 2010, initially serving as CFO of Delphi before becoming COO in 2014, and CEO in 2018. Under his leadership, Aptiv has focused on developing advanced electrical architecture and integrated software solutions for the automotive industry, as well as expanding its global reach. Before coming to Delphi, he was a founding partner of Liberty Lane Partners, a private equity investment firm focused on investing in and building and improving middle-market companies. Clark has also held several executive roles at Fisher Scientific International and Chrysler Corporation.

While Benjamin Lyon is senior vice president and chief technology officer of Aptiv, a relatively new position he has held since December 2022. Lyon has over two decades of experience in senior engineering, developing technology, commercializing products, and executing program launches at leading technology companies including Apple and Astra Space. He is now responsible for ensuring that Aptiv remains at the forefront of emerging and disruptive technology trends and prioritizing longer-term business model opportunities in mobility and adjacent markets.

Customer

As a leading provider of advanced electrical architecture and integrated software solutions for most of the world’s leading automotive manufacturers, Aptiv’s products help to make vehicles safer, greener, and more connected.

The product range includes a variety of technologies and solutions. These include advanced safety systems such as collision avoidance and lane departure warning systems, along with connectivity solutions that allow drivers to stay connected to the internet and other devices while on the road. In addition, autonomous driving technologies are helping to pave the way for the future of transportation and enabling self-driving cars to navigate roads safely and efficiently.

Aptiv’s products and services are organized into three core business units:
– Signal and Power Solutions,
– Advanced Safety and User Experience, and
– Autonomous Mobility.

The Signal and Power Solutions business unit provides electrical systems and components such as advanced wiring, electrical centers, and connectors that improve the efficiency and reliability of vehicles, while also reducing their environmental impact. The Advanced Safety and User Experience business unit provides technologies that improve the safety of vehicles and their passengers, while also making it more intuitive for drivers to interact with their vehicles. Finally, the Autonomous Mobility business unit is focused on developing everything from sensors and software to advanced computing platforms that enable vehicles to operate without a driver.

While it serves several of the world’s top-tier auto manufacturers, one of Aptiv’s major customers and a prime example of the company’s expertise in advanced electrical architecture and integrated software solutions, is BMW. Having worked with the German brand for many years, Aptiv provides an extensive range of ADAS, connectivity, and infotainment solutions including occupant sensing, night vision, blind spot detection, and gesture recognition, among many more.

Aptiv’s business is diversified across end markets, regions, customers, vehicle platforms, and products. Its customer base includes the 25 largest automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEM) in the world, and in 2022, 30% of its net sales came from the Asia Pacific region, which the company has identified as a key market likely to experience substantial long-term growth. In addition, in 2022, Aptiv’s products were found in 18 of the 20 top-selling vehicle models in both the U.S. and Europe and 12 of the 20 top-selling vehicle models in China.

The company has established a worldwide design and manufacturing footprint with a regional service model that enables it to efficiently and effectively serve global customers from the best-cost countries within each continent. This model makes it possible for Aptiv to engineer globally and execute regionally to serve the largest OEMs, which are seeking suppliers that can serve them on a worldwide basis. The large footprint also enables the company to adapt to the regional design variations that the global OEMs require, while also serving key growth markets.

Thematic

In 2022, the automotive industry experienced increased global customer sales and production schedules, despite the ongoing adverse impacts of global supply chain disruptions and increased inflationary pressures. Global vehicle production increased by 5% from 2021 to 2022, albeit with variations across regions. And while OEM demand is tied to actual vehicle production, Aptiv has had the opportunity to grow through increasing product content per vehicle by further penetrating business with existing customers and in existing markets, gaining new customers, and increasing their presence in global markets.

Furthermore, with evolving entrants into the global transportation industry including mobility providers, electric vehicle developers, and smart cities, these new players are expected to provide additional markets for Aptiv’s advanced technologies. As a company with a global presence and advanced technology, engineering, manufacturing, and customer support capabilities, Aptiv is well-positioned to benefit from these opportunities.

Aptiv believes the automotive industry is being shaped by rapidly increasing consumer demand for new mobility solutions, and advanced technologies, including software-defined vehicles, and vehicle connectivity, as well as increasing government regulation related to vehicle safety, fuel efficiency, and emissions control. These societal demands have created three “mega-trends” that serve as the basis for the next wave of market-driven automotive technology advancement. The need to be “Safe,” “Green” and “Connected,” is driving higher growth in products that address these trends, when compared to growth in the automotive industry overall.

Consequently, Aptiv is aiming to continue developing leading-edge technology focused on addressing these trends, and apply that technology toward products with sustainable margins that enable its customers to produce distinctive market-leading products. To achieve this, the company is continuing to invest heavily in research and development, while also partnering with other companies to develop solutions. In addition, it sees an increasing need for full system optimization through next-gen hardware architectures, cloud-native software architectures, and edge-to-cloud platforms, while also expanding into relevant adjacent markets.

Financials

After a modest dip through the covid pandemic, Aptiv’s revenue has continued to improve and exceed 2019 highs. While global automotive production increased by only 5%, the company’s overall volumes increased far more impressively. For the year ended December 31, 2022, the company reported revenue of $17.5 billion, an increase of 12% from the prior year.

It also successfully created a competitive cost structure, while still growing product offerings aligned with the high-growth mega-trends, and re-aligning its manufacturing footprint into an efficient, low-cost regional service model, focused on increasing profit margins. Despite the volatility caused by the global supply chain disruptions throughout 2022, this overall lean cost structure, along with continued above-market sales growth in all regions, enabled Aptiv to achieve strong levels of operating income, while continuing to strategically invest in the future. As a result, for the full 2022 year, the company reported a net income of $531 million.

Looking ahead, management is forecasting to close out FY23 with total revenue of $18.8 billion to $19.3 billion, slightly more conservative than consensus expectations at $19.4 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 11%. Analysts are also expecting full-year earnings per share to come in at $4.42, for a solid 30% improvement, up from $3.41 in 2022.

Risks/Competition

The automotive industry is highly competitive, with several major players vying for market share. As a leading provider of advanced electrical architecture and integrated software, Aptiv faces competition from some of the biggest automotive brands in the world including German giants, Bosch and Continental. Both of which have a broad range of products, like Aptiv, including everything from power systems, driver assistance systems, and electronic components.

While product quality, cost, and customer service are key competitive factors, as the automotive industry continues to evolve and new technologies emerge, companies that can develop and produce cutting-edge solutions will have a competitive advantage. As a result, Aptiv appears well-placed to continue its growth and success, thanks to its expertise in advanced technologies and its commitment to innovation.

Conclusion

The automotive industry is witnessing a surge in demand for advanced safety features and connectivity solutions as it moves towards electric vehicles and autonomous driving. Consequently, Aptiv’s products which enable safer, greener, and more connected vehicles, have allowed the company to successfully take advantage of these trends and put it on a long-term trajectory of continued growth.

Symbol Info

Weekly Chart

Fundamental Data

Snapshot

As people become increasingly health-conscious and active, the athletic footwear market continues to grow. Swiss performance apparel brand, ON, designs, manufactures, markets, and sells its own sports clothing and running shoes, and has carved out a unique premium niche by creating shoes that enhance the running and training experience.

ON’s core product line includes a variety of running shoes that utilize innovative technology to reduce impact and increase comfort. The brand offers a range of unique technology systems and materials providing everything from advanced shock absorbing capabilities, powerful take-offs, and smoother, effortless runs, to enhanced traction and grip whatever the terrain. The company even offers an innovative subscription service.

With a customer base made up of runners and fitness enthusiasts from around the world, the company has already built a strong presence in Europe and the United States, and is now also expanding into Asia and other emerging markets.

Currently in a high-growth stage, focused on broadening its global reach, ON continues to invest heavily in research and development, marketing, and new product offerings, as its growth strategy includes increasing brand awareness, expanding distribution channels, and developing new products that cater to the needs of its performance-seeking customers.

Background

The ON story all started in the Swiss alps when retired athlete, Olivier Bernhard, wanted to create a running shoe with a totally new feel. Teaming up with Caspar Coppetti and David Allemann, also former professional athletes, their goal was to create the most high-performance shoe ever.

They had a vision to create a new type of running shoe that combined the benefits of natural running with the protection and comfort of traditional shoes. The trio inspired by their own experiences and needs as runners to create a product that would help reduce injuries and enhance performance, came up with the experience of “running on clouds” with cushioned landings and power take-offs.

ON’s first product was the CloudTec running shoe, which was launched in 2010. The shoe was an instant success, receiving positive reviews from runners and industry experts alike. The company quickly gained a following and began to expand its product range, introducing new models and styles of running shoes, as well as apparel and accessories.

In addition to expanding its product range, ON has also expanded its geographic reach, establishing offices in several countries, including the United States, Japan, and Australia, to support its international growth. It has also built a network of retail partners and distributors around the world.

Leadership

Olivier Bernhard, a former three-time world duathlon champion and professional triathlete, brought his expertise as an athlete and engineer to ON. His experience in product development and design has been instrumental in the company’s success, as he was responsible for the initial shoe design.

With a background in branding and design, Caspar Coppetti, a former professional snowboarder and graphic designer, helped to create the company’s iconic logo, which features three curved lines representing the company’s core values of design, functionality, and technology. Coppetti also oversees ON’s marketing and brand strategy, working to build the company’s global presence and connect with customers around the world.

While David Allemann, a former professional footballer, has brought his experience in business and marketing to ON. He was responsible for securing the initial funding for the company and has played a key role in developing ON’s business strategy and building its international distribution network. Allemann is known for his innovative approach to business and his commitment to sustainability, which has helped the company establish itself as a leader in the global running shoe market.

Since its founding in 2010, ON has become one of the fastest-growing running shoe companies in the world, with its success due in large part to the vision and leadership of its co-founders, who continue to drive ON’s growth and innovation today.

Customer

ON offers a range of innovative and high-performance footwear, apparel, and accessories for athletes and people with an active lifestyle. Their products are designed to help users to perform at their best and to prevent injuries. With a focus on innovation and sustainability, the company has developed a strong following of fitness enthusiasts around the world.

One of ON’s most popular product lines is its running shoes. With a variety of styles and colors, the shoes are designed to provide the perfect balance of cushioning and support for runners of all levels. Every ON shoe includes CloudTec technology, which consists of individual “clouds” that cushion the foot, absorbing impact, reducing strain, and providing a smooth and stable ride.

Their shoe lines also feature a range of unique proprietary technologies including:
– Speedboard – which bends and flexes, converting the kinetic energy of each landing into a powerful take-off with more speed, for the same effort.
– Helion – a super foam for superior performance and smoother and more effortless runs
– Missiongrip – which gives enhanced traction with a carefully crafted grip-rubber compound that helps runners stick to the ground

While the company’s range of Cyclon recyclable running products uses bio-based, high-quality, and renewable materials to create a line of shoes and apparel designed to be recycled and transformed into new products. In September, the brand unveiled the first shoe made from carbon emissions, called Cloudprime, which was seen as a huge milestone, not only for ON, but for the whole sports industry as a move away from petroleum-based resources.

In addition to running shoes, ON also offers a range of apparel and accessories. Their apparel is designed to be comfortable and functional, with features such as moisture-wicking fabric and breathable materials. While accessories such as hats, gloves, and socks aim to help athletes stay comfortable and perform at their best.

ON’s products are used by a wide range of customers, including professional athletes and fitness enthusiasts. They are quickly becoming a brand favorite in the running and triathlon communities, and many high-profile athletes and teams including the Swiss Olympics and Red Bull Skydive teams, among many others, are choosing ON for their superior performance and innovative design. Their products are also popular among everyday athletes and people who are simply looking for comfortable and high-performance gear.

ON now has a global presence, with customers in over 60 countries around the world thanks to a strong e-commerce presence. The company’s online store features its full product offering and provides the ability to build valuable intelligence through direct conversations with customers. In addition, a network of retail partners includes sporting goods stores, specialty retailers, and department stores. While flagship stores are in major cities such as New York, Zurich, and Tokyo.

Thematic

With innovative technology and strong brand positioning, ON has been proving itself a formidable challenger against incumbent giants like Nike and Adidas, not only attracting a loyal following, but experiencing significant top-line growth in the past few years. And the company is persevering with several strategies in place to continue this growth, including expanding its product line, investing in marketing and sales, and expanding into new markets.

New product lines are continuing to target shoes for a wider range of activities across trail running and outdoor endeavors, allowing ON to reach a broader audience and appeal to runners with different needs and preferences. While heavy investment in marketing and sales to expand its customer base, has seen the company partnering with influencers and high-profile athletes to promote its brand and products.

For expansion into new markets, ON has been growing its retail presence in key territories such as the US and China. There has been a particular focus on expanding its direct-to-consumer sales channels, specifically, investing in its e-commerce capabilities, and launching new online platforms such as a partnership with the WeChat e-commerce mini program in China. These initiatives are aiming to make it easier for customers to purchase its products directly from ON, while also making its products available to customers in new regions.

In addition, ON has been partnering with distributors and retailers to expand its touchpoints and reach new customer segments. Retail partners are carefully selected across wholesale channels including select third-party online-only platforms, based on their compatibility with ON’s premium brand, positioning in the market, and industry expertise.

Going forward, ON also plans to open a limited number of additional retail flagship stores in major metropolitan centers as well as athletic destinations, where it believes it can operate profitably and create further brand momentum.

Financials

Appealing to serious athletes, ON has experienced rapid success and impressive top-line revenue growth in recent years. The company’s net sales for the first nine months of 2022 reached CHF 855.4 million, up 60.3% compared to the same period in 2021, This performance was driven by strong growth in the wholesale channel of 55.6%, well supported by new product launches in 2022. While direct-to-consumer sales rose over 40%, and exceptional growth of 85.2% was achieved thanks to new accounts in the Asia-Pacific region.

In its latest quarter, ON also delivered a gross profit margin of 57.1%, and despite foreign exchange headwinds and temporary supply chain constraints, the company recorded a net income of CHF 20.6 million.

ON is raising its previous guidance by CHF 25 million and now expects net sales of CHF 1.125 billion for the full year 2022, marginally lower than consensus expectations which have the company hitting $1.22 billion in the year, for an impressive 57% year-over-year increase. While full-year earnings per share are forecasted to come in at $0.33, an enormous 126% improvement, up from $0.15 in 2021.

Risks/Competition

Operating in a market with fierce competition, ON is up against well-established global players like Nike, Adidas, Under Armour, Puma, and Reebok, which benefit from significant resources, mature supply chains, and ubiquitous brand recognition. However, the company’s strong focus on creating unique practical technology coupled with superior performance and quality have provided key competitive differentiators against the incumbents.

Furthermore, a key market development in recent years is a significantly increased importance of sustainability and eco-friendliness in consumer buying habits, for which its recycled lines and unique materials have specifically targeted.

Conclusion

ON has experienced significant success and rapid revenue growth in recent years due to its unique product offering and strong brand positioning evolving from its Swiss home. With the company continuing to expand its product line, customer segments, and geographic footprint, it appears well-placed to continue its rapid growth trajectory.

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The rapid advancement and widespread proliferation of digital technologies and devices that define our daily lives have made the semiconductor industry more relevant and competitive than ever. Ubiquitous connectivity, smart devices, homes, and vehicles, and an ever-increasing need for more sophisticated, faster, and more efficient technology continue to drive a surging need for advanced semiconductor solutions.

Lattice Semiconductor Corporation is a leading specialist in customizable semiconductors and technologies. The company designs, develops, and supplies a variety of programmable logic devices and related software tools with products including everything from integrated circuits, power management systems, image and video applications, and IoT solutions, among many more.

Known for its high-performance, low-power, and small form factor products, Lattice’s solutions cater to a wide variety of customers, from small start-ups to large corporations, across diverse industries such as consumer electronics, communication systems, and industrial applications. And with customers spread across a range of market geographies, it has established itself as a trusted provider of bespoke applications.

Lattice is currently in a stage of growth and expansion with the company’s strategies focused on continuously improving its product offerings, expanding its customer base, and establishing a stronger presence in key markets. Lattice is also actively investing in research and development to ensure that it remains at the forefront of the semiconductor industry and is able to provide its customers with the latest and most advanced solutions.

Background

Lattice has a long history having been founded almost 40 years ago in Portland, Oregon. The company initially started as a provider of programmable logic devices, offering a range of solutions for a variety of applications, and over the years, has grown and expanded its offerings, adding new and advanced solutions to its portfolio. The company has also made several strategic acquisitions along the way, including SiliconBlue Technologies, which added mobile-optimized, low-power programmable logic solutions to its offerings, and Selea SRL, which brought cutting-edge semiconductor intellectual property to the company’s product portfolio.

In recent years, Lattice has been focused on expanding its presence in key markets and further improving its range to meet the changing needs of its customers. Now a well-established and respected player in the semiconductor industry, it continues to maintain this strong focus on innovation, ensuring it is well-positioned to continue its success and growth in the years to come.

Leadership

Jim Anderson is Lattice’s president and chief executive officer and also serves on the company’s board of directors. Since he joined in 2018, the company has accelerated its cadence of innovative product introductions and achieved record profitability. Prior to joining Lattice, Anderson served as the senior vice president and general manager of AMD’s Computing and Graphics business group, where he was responsible for global sales, marketing, and engineering. While at AMD, he drove a transformation that brought disruptive new products to market and generated industry-leading revenue growth. Prior to AMD, Anderson held a broad range of leadership positions spanning general management, engineering, sales, marketing, and corporate strategy at companies including Intel, Broadcom, and LSI Corporation. He also serves on the board of directors for several organizations and institutions including the Semiconductor Industry Association.

Stephen Douglass is Lattice’s senior VP of research and development. Also joining the company in 2018, he is responsible for the development of all hardware, software, and solutions. Douglass brings over 30 years of broad technology experience developing programmable solutions for many markets including wired and wireless communications, industrial, automotive, and test and measurement. He was an executive at Xilinx for 20 years, holding a wide range of leadership positions. He also spent 13 years at Cypress Semiconductor, again serving in various leadership roles, after beginning his career as an engineer at Intel.

Customer

Lattice offers a range of innovative and flexible programmable logic devices (PLDs), including Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs), Video Over IP, and Power Management solutions. These products are used by a variety of market-leading customers across a range of industries, albeit primarily across Communications and Computing, Industrial and Automotive, and Consumer markets.

In the Communications and Computing market, Lattice solutions play key roles in computing systems such as servers and client devices, 5G wireless infrastructure, switches and routers, and other related applications. In the Industrial and Automotive market, solutions include IoT, machine vision, robotics, factory automation, advanced driver assistance systems, and automotive infotainment. While in the Consumer Market, Lattice solutions are making products smarter and thinner, including smart home devices, prosumer devices, sound bars, high-end projectors, virtual and augmented reality, and wearables.

These PLD solutions provide customers with the flexibility to meet their specific design requirements and enable them to quickly adapt to changing market conditions and technologies. FPGA products offer customers a high level of performance and low power consumption, making them ideal for use in a wide range of applications.

In addition to its programmable logic solutions, Lattice offers a comprehensive range of software tools and design resources that support customers throughout the design process. This includes design tools, IP cores, reference designs, and development kits that provide a comprehensive design environment, enabling customers to quickly and easily develop their designs.

The company operates globally, with a strong presence in Asia, Europe, and the Americas, and its products are sold through a network of authorized distributors and sales representatives.

Thematic

There are multiple growth areas that will allow Lattice to increase its addressable market. In particular, there are several emerging trends in servers, infrastructure, and smart devices that are creating large opportunities. These include the growth of hyperscale datacenters, continued infrastructure build-out from 5G deployment and beyond, electrification, and the proliferation of sensors in smart factories, smart homes, and automobiles, along with an increase in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and a multitude of applications at the network edge.

Lattice’s approach to product development is focused on delivering innovative and highly differentiated products that meet the unique requirements of its customers in various markets and applications. Consequently, the company invests heavily in research and development, with a particular focus on developing new technologies and applications that drive growth and competitiveness. To this end, Lattice is leveraging increasing demand for key growth areas by offering solutions that address the needs of a wide range of customers, including system-on-chip designers, FPGA users, and system architects.

In December, Lattice unveiled its Avant line, providing a new FPGA platform purpose-built to bring the company’s power-efficient architecture, small size, and performance leadership to mid-range FPGAs. The products offer best-in-class power efficiency, advanced connectivity, and optimized computing in the company’s key market segments. The new platform is expected to expand Lattice’s set of customer applications across these key markets, creating new greenfield revenue opportunities, and doubling its addressable market from $3 billion to $6 billion.

Lattice also expects continued growth in its Industrial and Automotive segment which has performed particularly well in 2022, surging by 45% year-over-year, as it continues to add applications in industrial automation and robotics, as well as automated driving, and infotainment systems. Back in August, the company launched the Lattice CertusPro NX FPGA family, which is optimized specifically for Automotive and extended temperature applications, combining automotive-grade features with the best-in-class power efficiency, performance, and small form factor found in all Lattice CertusPro NX FPGAs.

In addition to product development, Lattice continues to invest in its sales and marketing teams to expand its reach in existing and new markets. By providing ongoing customer support and training, and working with partners to integrate its solutions into their offerings, the company intends to further grow its customer base and increase the usage of its solutions by existing customers.

Financials

Lattice’s efforts to boost its product range and expand its market reach have proven quite successful in recent years. In its latest results, the company recorded its eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth after delivering revenue of $176.0 million, up from $107.2 million in a comparative quarter just two years ago. The top-line growth which has been driven by the industrial, automotive, communications and computing segments, took Lattice’s full-year revenue to $660.4 million, for a 28% increase on 2021.

The company also achieved record operating profit, as gross margins increased to a record 70% in the fourth quarter, driven by a gross margin expansion strategy, which started in 2019.

Looking ahead, management is forecasting to kick off FY23 with total revenue between $175 million and $185 million. While consensus estimates have full-year revenue expected at $735 million, maintaining double-digit year-over-year growth of 11.3%. Analysts are also expecting earnings per share to continue its impressive upwards trajectory, increasing 15% year-over-year to $2.02 and $2.33 for 2023 and 2024 respectively.

Risks/Competition

In the highly competitive semiconductor industry, Lattice faces competition from several major players such as Intel, Texas Instruments, and NVIDIA, who offer a range of products and services that compete with Lattice’s offerings. Xilinx (a subsidiary of AMD) is also a chief competitor, although after AMD completed the acquisition of Xilinx in February 2022, Lattice became the last fully independent major manufacturer of FPGAs. Additionally, Lattice also faces competition from new entrants and small start-ups that offer specialized solutions.

While the industry is characterized by rapidly changing technology and evolving standards, Lattice’s competitive advantage lies in its ability to provide high-performance and low-power solutions that cater to a wide range of applications. Additionally, the company also has a strong presence in the Asian market, which is a key growth region for the industry.

Conclusion

While potentially not as well known in consumer circles as Intel and NVIDIA, with a wide range of products that cater to a diverse customer base, Lattice is well-established and respected in the market. The company has a strong focus on innovation and has invested heavily in R&D to remain at the forefront of the industry, positioning it well for continued success and growth in the years to come.

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Chinese electric vehicle maker, Li Auto, continues to make significant strides in its bid to secure a major portion of the Chinese EV market. In recent months, the company has launched and unveiled new models, further improved its sales and funding position, and is building new R&D and manufacturing bases, as well as secured key safety and sustainability ratings.

Following on from its original Li ONE vehicle, Li Auto began the first deliveries of its second model, the Li L9 full size extended-range electric SUV in August. Quickly followed by its Li ONE successor, the L8, a six-seat mid to large-size SUV, in November. Showing no signs of easing momentum, deliveries for the company’s next mid to large-size five-seat L7 SUV have just begun in February.

While the full impacts of the new models are yet to be seen, Li Auto’s sales have continued to grow in 2022 with total deliveries for the first nine months of the year blitzing 2021, after surging more than 57% to almost 87,000 units. The strong sales have been backed up by a $365 million capital raise which has been key in supporting continued investment to maintain the company’s vision of long-term sustainable success.

As it attempts to carve out a distinct premium market against the Chinese EV landscape, which is saturated by comparatively cheap low-speed electric vehicles, Li Auto is bolstering its credentials with standout luxury features and safety ratings.

The company is also building a semiconductor R&D and manufacturing base in the high-tech zone of Suzhou, which will focus on the in-house research and development efforts that will be directed comprehensively across products, platforms, and systems, with the long-term goal of growing into a world-class technology company.

Background

Since its launch in 2015, Li Auto has seen rapid growth and has established itself as a leading player in the Chinese EV market. Despite a slow commercial start for the Li ONE initially, sales for the company exploded to more than $4.25 billion in 2021.

The company’s success has been driven thanks to established partnerships with several leading technology companies, including Huawei and Baidu, to integrate cutting-edge technologies into its vehicles. This has helped to differentiate itself from its competitors and appeals to tech-savvy consumers in China.

Li Auto has also made significant investments in charging infrastructure to support the widespread adoption of EVs in China, having established partnerships with several major charging networks, including State Grid and China Southern Power Grid, to build out a comprehensive charging network across the country.

The company’s relentless focus on producing premium EVs and its investments in R&D and technology are core to positioning it well for future growth. As it maintains ambitious targets of being the number one smart electric vehicle maker in China, seeking to obtain 20% market share with sales over 1.6 million units by 2025.

Leadership

While founder Li Xiang continues to oversee the company as chief executive officer and chairman of the board, former executive director and president, Shen Yanan, tendered his resignation with Li Auto in December to focus on personal affairs. Chief engineer, Donghui Ma, was subsequently promoted to company president and appointed as a director. In addition, senior vice president, Yan Xie, was also promoted as the new chief technology officer.

Ma has served as the company’s chief engineer since 2015, before which he worked as dean of the research institute at SANY Heavy Vehicle Body Co. While Xie who has been the company’s senior vice president since July 2022, previously held several senior roles with industry giants including Huawei Technologies, Alibaba Group, and Intel.

Customer

Li Auto’s growing range of new models continues to target China’s middle- and high-income consumers who are looking for premium electric SUVs with longer-range capabilities. Having positioned itself as a luxury EV brand, offering vehicles with advanced features, comfortable interiors, and multiple trim options, the company’s latest models are aiming to not only maintain the latest technology developments, but provide customers with a range of vehicle size options.

First unveiled in June 2022, the Li L9 joined the Li Auto line-up as the new flagship smart SUV for families. Like the initial Li ONE, the six-seat, full-size vehicle, offers superior space and comfort for family users. The L9 is comparable in size to the Mercedes-Benz GLS and BMW X7, but with a price tag under $70k, it is less than half the price of the flagship SUVs from the two German luxury automakers. With a total power of 330 kW, a torque of 620 Nm, and an acceleration time of just 5.3 seconds from 0-100 km/h, it provides a significant performance boost over its predecessor. All while maintaining a CLTC range of 1,315 kilometers thanks to flagship range extension and chassis systems.

In addition, a suite of high-tech features includes the company’s self-developed autonomous driving system, Li AD Max, vehicle safety measures to protect every family passenger, and an innovative five-screen, three-dimensional interactive intelligent cockpit that aims to bring a new level of driving and entertainment experience. While a forward-facing LiDAR system of 128 lasers delivers the most comprehensive performance of any other vehicle LiDAR system on the market.

Soon after the L9 unveiling, the company announced its plans for another 6-seat SUV, the Li L8, which ultimately launched in September 2022 and is considered the replacement for the original Li ONE model. While just launched in February 2023, and based on the same size footprint as the L8, the Li L7, offers the company’s first 5-seat vehicle with one of the most spacious second-row seats in its class. The new additions also deliver improved performance over the Li ONE, albeit positioned below the flagship L9, while also allowing for multiple trim levels for the first time.

Li Auto’s footprint of retail stores has also grown significantly throughout 2022, increasing from 206 locations at the end of 2021 to 296 retail stores in 123 cities across China. In addition, 320 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops are now operating in 222 cities.

Thematic

Li Auto’s focus on offering premium electric vehicles with advanced technology and high-end features at competitive prices has proved key to its success to date. Its combination of high-capacity batteries, powerful motors, and advanced infotainment and safety systems has helped the company to differentiate itself from other EV manufacturers in the market. It has also helped attract a growing number of discerning customers who are looking for a premium electric vehicle. Its strategic partnerships with leading automotive suppliers and technology companies, in particular, battery manufacturers, have enabled it to develop high-capacity batteries that offer longer driving ranges than its competitors.

In addition to its strong focus on product development, Li Auto has also pursued an aggressive marketing strategy, leveraging social media, and other digital platforms to reach a broad and diverse audience. The company has also invested heavily in building a robust and efficient distribution network, which has helped to ensure that its vehicles are readily available to customers throughout China, as well as provide strong after-sales maintenance and support.

While it has been reported that China’s EV market is set to lose steam in 2023 as the government phases out cash subsidies, it is important to note that Li Auto won’t be affected by this specific policy headwind in a meaningful way. This is due to the company’s entire range of vehicles exceeding the maximum sale price of RMB300,000 required to qualify for subsidies.

The macroeconomic landscape for Li Auto also appears to be improving as the easing of the zero-covid policy in China may help fuel both delivery and sales growth in the near term.

Financials

While a covid pandemic resurgence and associated supply chain interruptions have been challenging for the industry, Li Auto has continued to drive a robust financial performance throughout 2022. In the first nine months of the year, the company has already hit $4.12 million in total revenue, just short of its full-year 2021 result.

While losses have surged to $324.5 million, the result continues to be due to the scale and pace of investments in research and development, expansion of its sales network, workforce, and marketing activities. In particular, R&D costs more than doubled to $253.6 million in the third quarter, while selling, general and administrative expenses increased by almost 48% due to a growing number of staff, as well as increased rental expenses associated with the expansion of the company’s sales network.

Looking ahead, for the final quarter of 2022, the company expects deliveries of vehicles to be between 45,000 and 48,000 vehicles, continuing growth with an increase of 27.8% to 36.3%. As a result, total revenues are expected to be between $2.32 billion and $2.47 billion, representing an increase of 55.4% to 65.8% from the fourth quarter of 2021.

However, for the full 2022 year, while consensus estimates have tempered in recent months, they are still marginally higher than the company’s forecast, with total sales still expected to end the year at $6.65 billion, for an impressive increase of 55%. Then improving a further 107% and 48% in 2023 and 2024 respectively. Furthermore, while earnings per share estimates are forecasted to contract to a loss of $0.02 following 2021’s surprise earnings of $0.13 per share, 2023 and 2024 predictions have the metric surging to $0.38 and $0.84 respectively.

Risks/Competition

While the company is in its growth phase both in regard to accelerating sales, as well as the rapid expansion of its network and manufacturing capacities, there will likely be no shortage of expenditures and R&D costs. However in the competitive EV landscape, with players like Tesla, NIO, and XPeng these will be critical to keeping the company’s line-up ahead of the competition and to remain relevant.

Considering all Chinese EV makers have been forced to deal with challenges like supply chain constraints and pandemic restrictions, it is encouraging to see Li Auto post much better delivery numbers than its key peers. Notably, the Li L9, which was introduced to the market in the middle of last year, and only started deliveries at the end of August, saw shipments surpass 10,000 units already by December.

Conclusion

Li Auto’s combination of premium products, strategic partnerships, and aggressive marketing has positioned the company well in the highly competitive Chinese EV market. Its concerted efforts to grow the company and commit to future innovation appear to be paying off, as demand for its new models remains strong.

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